By Burnett Munthali

The United Transformation Movement (UTM) has downplayed the Afrobarometer survey launched on December 6, 2024, which locations the celebration on the backside of voter preferences for subsequent yr’s presidential elections. According to the survey, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is projected to win with 43% assist, the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) follows at 29%, and the UTM lags with a mere 7%. Despite this bleak outlook, UTM officers insist they’re poised to safe a shocking victory.

The Afrobarometer survey signifies a dramatic decline in UTM’s recognition, a stark distinction to its sturdy displaying in the course of the formation of the Tonse Alliance in 2020. Many respondents attributed the drop to dissatisfaction with UTM’s perceived lack of ability to ship on its guarantees, coupled with frustrations about Vice President Saulos Chilima’s efficiency within the Tonse administration.

The findings recommend that UTM faces a frightening job of reversing public discontent, with many citizens seemingly turning to the DPP and MCP as their most popular selections.

Addressing the media in Lilongwe, UTM spokesperson Felix Njawala dismissed the survey outcomes, claiming they don’t replicate the celebration’s precise assist on the bottom. “Polls are merely snapshots of perception, not a determinant of election outcomes. UTM has faced skeptics before, and we will prove them wrong again,” Njawala acknowledged confidently.

He added that the celebration has initiated sturdy engagement efforts on the grassroots degree to reconnect with the citizens and display its transformative agenda. “Malawians are tired of recycled leadership. UTM represents the future, and we will show this in our campaign,” he stated.

With solely months left earlier than the elections, UTM has vowed to accentuate its marketing campaign efforts by specializing in key points resembling job creation, anti-corruption, schooling reforms, and financial empowerment for the youth.

Njawala argued that the celebration’s progressive insurance policies and Vice President Chilima’s management stay central to UTM’s attraction. “We are the only party offering real solutions to Malawi’s challenges. While others thrive on populism, we are committed to tangible change,” he remarked.

Meanwhile, the DPP has welcomed the survey outcomes, with spokesperson Shadreck Namalomba describing them as a “reflection of the public’s desire for a return to stable and visionary leadership.” Similarly, the MCP has downplayed its second-place place, pledging to accentuate its efforts to retain energy.

Political commentators are divided on UTM’s possibilities. Dr. Emily Kamwana, a governance professional, famous that whereas Afrobarometer surveys supply invaluable insights, they don’t seem to be definitive predictors of election outcomes. “Elections are dynamic, and a strong campaign can change public sentiment quickly,” she stated.

However, different analysts argue that UTM faces an uphill battle, particularly with such a low baseline of assist. “Recovering from 7% is a monumental task. UTM must address the concerns that led to this decline, including its role in the Tonse Alliance’s perceived failures,” stated Dr. Henry Kachaje, a political analyst.

Despite the challenges, UTM stays optimistic about its prospects. The celebration has pledged to handle voter considerations head-on and to marketing campaign on a platform of hope and transformation. As Njawala put it, “This is not the first time we’ve been underestimated. The 2025 elections will surprise many, and UTM will emerge as the people’s choice.”

As the political season heats up, all eyes might be on whether or not UTM can defy the percentages and reclaim its place as a major contender in Malawi’s political panorama.

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