South Korea’s suspended president Yoon Suk Yeol stays defiant in his newly-fortified residence, with the arrest warrant over his short-lived martial law order set to run out on Monday.

Yoon’s safety crew, which stopped investigators arresting him on Friday, put in barbed wire and barricaded the compound with buses over the weekend, to forestall one other try.

Yoon had ignored a number of summonses to seem for questioning on rebel and abuse of energy expenses, earlier than investigators confirmed up at his residence – solely to name off their operation after a six-hour standoff with the presidential safety service.

Investigators could attempt to prolong their warrant. They informed the BBC they’ve requested the police to execute it, within the hope their efforts carry extra weight.

Public anger has spiralled in current weeks, as 1000’s of protesters braved heavy snow over the weekend, each in assist of and in opposition to Yoon.

South Korea has been in disaster for the previous month, ever since Yoon tried to impose martial legislation citing a risk from the North and “anti-state forces”. The fallout continues as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Seoul, looking for to stabilise ties forward of a Donald Trump presidency.

A looming deadline

Time has nearly run out for the investigators main the felony case in opposition to Yoon.

Yoon’s legal professionals have claimed that his arrest warrant was “illegal” because the anti-corruption investigators didn’t have the authority to supervise a case as critical as rebel.

The presidential safety crew has cited this as a motive for blocking Yoon’s arrest – together with the truth that Yoon stays a sitting president till the constitutional court docket guidelines on his impeachment.

“For the PSS, whose primary mission is the absolute safety of the president, to comply with the execution of an arrest warrant amidst ongoing legal disputes would be tantamount to abandoning its duty,” safety service chief Park Jong-joon stated on Sunday.

Mr Park denied accusations that his crew was serving as a “private militia” for Yoon.

Yoon’s legal professionals, who on Monday filed complaints in opposition to investigators over the arrest try, stated Yoon has been “practically detained in his residence”.

They additionally filed an injunction in opposition to the warrant, which was rejected by the court docket, after which stated they had been contemplating interesting the choice.

Meanwhile, appearing president Choi Sang-mok has resisted the opposition’s calls to sack key safety officers obstructing the arrest.

The BBC understands that opposition lawmakers had requested investigators to strive arresting Yoon once more, however “more firmly and with sufficient means”.

Investigators might additionally apply for a brand new detention warrant, which must be permitted by a decide. That would enable Yoon to be detained for as much as 20 days, whereas an arrest warrant solely permits him to be held for 48 hours.

But with no change to both the state of affairs or their strategy, it appears unlikely investigators or police will be capable of make the arrest.

As seen final Friday, they could once more be blocked by the presidential safety service which fashioned a “human wall” to guard Yoon. He himself has vowed to “fight to the end”, dividing public opinion and spurring on his supporters, who’ve been demonstrating for days exterior his residence.

The tense standoff has additionally raised urgent questions concerning the robustness and effectiveness of South Korea’s political and authorized establishments.

Diplomatic headwinds

The state of affairs additionally has penalties past home politics.

Up till final month, the Biden administration had sung Yoon’s praises, delighted by his willingness to work with Washington to deal with the safety threats posed by North Korea and China. The US put lots of effort into serving to South Korea restore its strained relations with Japan, so the three nations might tackle these points collectively.

Mr Blinken’s ongoing go to to Seoul, the place he’ll meet South Korean overseas minister Cho Tae-yul on Monday, due to this fact comes at a troublesome time for these two allies.

Yoon didn’t inform the US about his plans to impose martial legislation, which means Washington didn’t have the possibility to dissuade him and was unprepared for the chaos that ensued.

Blinken is not going to wish to be drawn on the present political state of affairs. He will as a substitute wish to deal with preserving the trilateral cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo past Biden’s tenure.

Speaking throughout a joint presser on Monday, Blinken stated the US had “full confidence” in South Korea’s establishments, and reaffirmed the US authorities’s “unwavering support for the Korean people as they work tirelessly to uphold those institutions”.

“Over the past four decades Korea has written one of the most powerful, inspiring democratic stories in the world,” Blinken stated.

Korea’s democracy has been examined in current weeks – simply as American democracy has confronted challenges all through our historical past. But you’re responding by demonstrating your democratic resilience.”

But it’s onerous to disentangle the home and geopolitical conditions. South Korea could possibly be months away from electing a brand new president, and that chief could properly wish to break with Yoon’s overseas insurance policies.

Trump, who enters the White House in a fortnight, can even pursue his personal agenda.

Additional reporting by Hosu Lee and Leehyun Choi in Seoul – BBC